“There is a risk of endless war. Year of low intensity, then a violent eruption – Corriere.it

From Paulo Valentino

Dmitry Suslov: “Opportunities to stop at Donbass have been reduced, protracted conflicts have greatly increased”

From our correspondent
Berlin –Western nations want Russian defeat. And he does not want to enter into an agreement that we can accept. Take a look at the G7’s latest report, where it is clearly stated that it will reject any change in boundaries. But It is obvious that Russia will ask for recognition Crimea As part of the Russian Federation and Donbass It is not part of Ukraine. It often raises the issue of Kerson and other areas were controlled by Russian troops. If this is the Western position then there can be no agreement. That is what it means L
He is likely to continue the war and launch a Russian attack on Odessa For Cut Ukraine from the Black Sea“.

This is the third time we have felt this since the conflict began Dmitry Suslov, director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Moscow High School of Economics, one of the Kremlin’s think tanks. Each time, it felt like a big hardening, something to appear Gradually more extremism in the Russian leadership.

What is your picture of the situation? Russian troops are unable to advance.

“Russia is still focusing on Donbass. The pace of progress is not as fast as the Kremlin wants. There are problems for a number of reasons. First, the Russian political leadership is reluctant. Increase the size of the forces Involved in war, many experts advise. The government is determined to continue the struggle with a limited number of forces. As far as I know, the reason behind this choice is that we want to preserve an idea of ​​normal life in Russia. They want people to think that something special is going on somewhere, but it has no impact on everyday life. In fact, from an economic, cultural and leisure perspective, life in Russia continues as before. No sense of mobilization, you do not get the impression that we are fighting in Ukraine if you do not watch TV. It is considered important to maintain political stability, so there will be no increase in war effort. ”

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So, Russia did not win, because, as they say, it does not mean “fighting with one hand”?

“No. The slow pace of the attack is also weighed against the determination to reduce the number of casualties among Russian soldiers. The United States and Western nations provide significant military assistance And intelligence to the Ukrainians. Despite this, the mission continues and the hope in practice is that Russia can win the war for the Donbass, even with troops of this size, even though it has more firepower than Ukraine. Ukrainian losses are high and it is doubtful how much more they can withstand the current pressure.

However, Kodaryonok, a former colonel and strategic analyst, publicly described the most negative picture of your situation on the ground, saying that it would only get worse and Russia would be isolated.

“This is the hegemonic story of the West.”

Probably, but what the former Russian military and security expert said was surprising.

“True. But Kodayonok is not an objective film, even on the basis of secret estimates made to me. There was no miraculous victory. They lost the primacy of the Black Sea Navy, Many commanders died and many more. Let us remember that we are fighting for something Proxy war,This is not a Russia-Ukraine war but a Russia-NATO or Russia-US war. I remember the importance of information about targets, except weapons: based on every Ukrainian missile or artillery shot Data provided by Western Intelligence. So, I will not talk about a big Russian victory, but the situation described by Kotorionok and the Western media who are silent about the situation in Ukraine: the number of victims among the soldiers in Kiev is very high, one-third. People were fleeing their homes, a third of the infrastructure was destroyed, and the economy shrank by 50%. I do not think Ukraine will win.

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But you are isolated.

“There is no sense of isolation in Russia. The West has proven to be almost incompetent in mobilizing non-Western nations. There is also internal friction within the West: for example, look at the Sixth Sanctions against Russia.Oil ban. Sections are also found in the troops to be stationed at NATO border countries, which actually want more numbers than decided.

What happens when Donbass wins? There are two more lines in the Kremlin, one is to stop there and look for agreement, and the other is to continue the war until the bitter end?

“There are two hypotheses. But unfortunately the chances of a first choice have been greatly reduced and the chances of an endless war have greatly increased.”

Then there will be no exhaustion.

“not like that. Paradoxically, after the severing of Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, an intensification will decrease due to the fatigue of all parties. When I say exhausted, I mean not only Russia and Ukraine, but also the West, whose arms supply capacity is already in its range, especially in Europe. This is different for the United States, however, as internal political factors are already beginning to weigh in. This may be a physiological fact, but the war may continue at low intensity for at least a year. Then the violence may start again.

Does this mean that the Italian initiative is being pushed back by these countries?

“It is clear to me that Russia is ready. The Ukrainians left the negotiating table because the US and the UK encouraged them to increase their demands. Our position has not officially changed since before the conflict: Crimea, Donbass, neutralization, militarization.”

How would you react to Finland and Sweden entering NATO? Putin underestimated its impact.

“This is a deliberate and deliberate violation of the red lines pointed out by Russia, which is another proof of our intention to humiliate us. Of course there will be changes: Finland It is no longer considered an ally and ally. Russia is militarizing the northwest and especially Karelia in response to the imbalances in the region and its attempt to turn NATO into the Baltic Sea. The Russian-Finnish border is no longer a friendly border and even though Finland is the only battlefield. Cyber ​​war. As for troops or NATO bases in Finland, I have no doubt that Russia will explain and target tactical nuclear weapons against Finland.

But is Russian society ready to accept a protracted war?

“In my opinion, Russian society is in a vague or rather paradoxical state. I do not see it. This explains the Kremlin’s reluctance to start a public mobilization.

May 22, 2022 (Change May 22, 2022 | 08:01)

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